SBMUpdated 23 Oct 2026
Early version, updated weekly. Every claim is dated and sourced. Think something is wrong? Dispute it.

Screen all 48

Every model with its three labels, register, state and evidence. Click a column head to sort; filter by register, rung, family or text.

Model screen 48 models · 121 companies · 144 evidence items

ModelRungFamilyLoopRegisterStateCosEvidenceLast
Pay per outcomeR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 34A 0B2026-09
Credits for AI workR1 Flow through Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 32A 1B2026-03-02
Tokens as the unit of saleR2 Rides Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 31A 2B2026-09-24
Vertical AI priced by the workR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 33A 0B2026-04-02
Discovery paid by milestoneR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 43A 2B2026-07
AI roll-ups of services firmsR2 Rides Selling the finished workcost-curve RisingEmerging 20A 3B2026-06-02
Engineers deployed with the softwareR3 Compounds Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 21A 1B2026-08-04
The ambient scribeR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 42A 2B2026-09-25
The tiny-team companyR3 Compounds Selling the finished workself-improving RisingScaling 41A 3B2026-05-05
Prompt to appR1 Flow through Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 20A 2B2026-04-13
Generative media subscriptionsR1 Flow through Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 32A 1B2026-08-20
Expert data marketplacesR2 Rides Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal RisingScaling 41A 6B2026-08-20
Content licensed to AI labsR1 Flow through Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal RisingEmerging 31A 3B2026-08-17
Paid AI access to contentR2 Rides Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal RisingEmerging 45A 2B2026-07-01
Agentic checkoutR2 Rides Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingContested 53A 3B2026-03-24
Optimizing for AI answersR1 Flow through Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingScaling 32A 1B2026-02-24
Model routingR1 Flow through Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingEmerging 22A 0B2026-09
AI glassesR2 Rides Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingScaling 40A 4B2026-09-21
Tiered intelligence subscriptionsR2 Rides Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 21A 1B2026-09
NeocloudsLEV Leveraged Owning the scarce inputscapital RisingScaling 30A 3B2026-04-15
Compute for equityLEV Leveraged Owning the scarce inputscapital RisingContested 42A 2B2026-04-24
Sovereign AI capacityLEV Leveraged Owning the scarce inputscapital RisingEmerging 21A 1B2026-03-30
Energy underwritten by computeLEV Leveraged Owning the scarce inputscapital RisingScaling 30A 3B2026
Driverless ridesR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 52A 3B2026-Q2
Robots as a serviceR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingEmerging 42A 2B2026-09-01
Open weights with paid layersR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 31A 2B2026-09-11
Open protocols as commonsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 32A 2B2025-12-09
Stablecoin floatR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 23A 0B2026-08-05
Prediction marketsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingEmerging 22A 1B2026-05-07
Digital workers priced as laborR3 Compounds Selling the finished workself-improving On watchWatch 42A 3B2025-07-31
The one-person companyR3 Compounds Selling the finished workself-improving On watchWatch 10A 1B2025-06-18
Machine-to-machine micropaymentsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork On watchWatch 11A 2B2026-08-13
Apps inside AI assistantsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointscontrol-point On watchWatch 34A 0B2026-09-25
Autonomous businessesR4 Self-improving Selling the finished workself-improving On watchWatch 12A 0B2026
Likeness and voice licensingR2 Rides Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal On watchWatch 21A 1B2026-05
AI-tutored schoolingR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning On watchWatch 31A 3B2026-08
AI companionsR2 Rides Selling abundancelearning On watchWatch 00A 0B
AI-run insuranceR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning On watchWatch 20A 2B2026-04-29
Per-seat software pricingR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringUnder pressure 20A 2B2026-04-02
Search-referral publishingR0 Fights toward Owning the scarce humancontrol-point RetiringDeclining 12A 1B2025-10-27
Question-and-answer sitesR0 Fights toward Owning the scarce humannetwork RetiringDeclining 11A 0B2025-10-27
Offshore contact-center laborR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringDeclining 21A 1B2026-06-29
Per-word human translationR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringDeclining 11A 0B2025
Commodity freelance gigsR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringUnder pressure 10A 1B2025-09-15
Stock media licensingR0 Fights toward Selling abundancehuman-signal RetiringUnder pressure 12A 0B2026-03-16
Ten-blue-links search advertisingR0 Fights toward Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RetiringEarly pressure 21A 1B2025-Q3
Headcount-billed IT servicesR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringWatch 10A 1B2025-10-09
The billable hour and the pyramidR0 Fights toward Selling the finished worklearning RetiringWatch 10A 1B2025-05-29