Ten-blue-links search advertising
Placement: a judgment drawn from the evidence, open to correction (dispute it). As a rung 0 model it carries the family its value is moving toward.
The model
- Definition
- Ads on a results page that people click through.
- What presses on it
- Apple testified that Safari searches fell for the first time in April 2025, attributing it to AI.
- What still holds it up
- Google reports accelerating query growth.
- Stops working when
- The pressure above is the case against it. A stated end condition for retiring models is not yet written.
Evidence
Companies 2
Evidence items 2
Grades 1A 1B
Latest dated 2025-Q3
Counter-evidence 1
Evidence items 2
Grades 1A 1B
Latest dated 2025-Q3
Counter-evidence 1
The three labels
0. Fights · loop gain negative. The curve shrinks what it charges for (seats, hours, heads, words, clicks).
Toward: Owning the choke points · money lands in where machine choices are made and paid.
Control-point loop · own where choices are made and paid, capture the flow.
Named companies 2 companies · grade per item
| Company | Claim | Date | Gr | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Inc. (testimony about Google Safari default) US · public · best B |
Apple SVP Eddy Cue testified in the US v. Google antitrust trial that 'searches on Safari dipped for the first time last month,' attributing it to people using AI, and said he expects AI providers (OpenAI, Perplexity, Anthropic) to eventually displace conventional search engines, with Apple planning to add such options to Safari | 2025-05-07 | B | Daring Fireball (reporting on court testimony) |
| Alphabet Inc. / Google US · public · best A |
Alphabet's CEO stated in Q3 2025 earnings remarks that overall and commercial Google Search queries continued to grow year over year, with growth accelerating in Q3, driven by AI Overviews and AI Mode; AI Mode reached over 75 million daily active users with queries doubling quarter over quarter | 2025-Q3 | A | Google (Alphabet CEO earnings remarks) |
Counter-evidence Reversals, failures and disputes
| Google's own reported query volume and (per its earnings commentary) revenue growth for Search were still rising through Q3 2025, directly contradicting a 'search advertising is dying' reading at the market leader; Google disputed Apple's characterization of a Safari search traffic decline | 2025-05-08 | MacRumors (reporting Google's dispute) |
Sources 3
Daring Fireball (reporting on court testimony) daringfireball.net · 2025-05-07
Google (Alphabet CEO earnings remarks) blog.google · 2025-Q3
MacRumors (reporting Google's dispute) macrumors.com · 2025-05-08
Google (Alphabet CEO earnings remarks) blog.google · 2025-Q3
MacRumors (reporting Google's dispute) macrumors.com · 2025-05-08