Meet the business models of the AI economy
48 ways of making money as we pass through the singularity, grouped by what happens to each one every time AI gets better and cheaper. Dashed cards are on watch: real signals, thinner evidence.
Being squeezed · 10Growing but easy to copy · 6Riding the wave · 23Compounding · 4Self-improving · 1Riding on expectations · 4
Being squeezed
10 modelsEach step forward in AI shrinks what they charge for: seats, hours, heads, words, clicks.
Being squeezedPer-seat software pricing$0.50HubSpot now charges per resolved conversation instead of per seatSoftware priced per human user.Being squeezedSearch-referral publishing-24%Fall in Chegg's revenue in a year as AI answers replaced Google clicksPublishers funded by traffic from search results.Being squeezedQuestion-and-answer sites-45%Of Chegg's staff let go, blaming AI and lost search trafficSites monetizing people's need to ask a community or database.Being squeezedOffshore contact-center laborCutConcentrix lowered its 2026 revenue forecastCustomer service priced on headcount and wage arbitrage.Being squeezedPer-word human translation<50%Of TransPerfect's revenue now comes from human translationTranslation billed by the word a person renders.Being squeezedCommodity freelance gigs-30%Of Fiverr's staff laid off to become an AI-first companyMarketplaces taking a cut of small, commoditized tasks.Being squeezedStock media licensing$3.7BGetty Images and Shutterstock merged to surviveLibraries of human-made images and video licensed per use.Being squeezedTen-blue-links search advertisingFirst dipApple testified that Safari searches fell for the first time, as people turned to AIAds on a results page that people click through.Being squeezedHeadcount-billed IT services12,260Jobs cut at TCS, the IT services giantIT services billed on the number of engineers staffed.Being squeezedThe billable hour and the pyramid-10%McKinsey's headcount from its peak. The firm credits attrition, not AIProfessional services priced by hours and leveraged on junior staff.
Growing but easy to copy
6 modelsAI helps them grow, but rivals match every gain and customers keep the savings.
Growing but easy to copyCredits for AI work$2B+Cursor's annual revenue run rate, doubled in three monthsUsers buy credits or compute units that are consumed by the amount of AI work a task takes, instead of paying per seat.Growing but easy to copyPrompt to app$100M → $400MLovable's annual revenue in seven months, from apps people describe in plain wordsPeople describe software in plain language and get a working, deployed application, paid by usage.Growing but easy to copyGenerative media subscriptions$11BElevenLabs' valuation, more than tripled in a yearMusic, voice and video generated on demand, sold by subscription to consumers and creators.Growing but easy to copyContent licensed to AI labs$60MA year that Google agreed to pay Reddit for its contentPublishers and platforms license archives and live content to AI labs for training and for grounding answers.Growing but easy to copyOptimizing for AI answers$1BProfound's valuation at 18 months old, for getting brands recommended by AISoftware and services that track and improve how often AI answer engines cite and recommend a brand.Growing but easy to copyModel routing5T → 25TTokens a week through OpenRouter, in six monthsOne interface over hundreds of models, routing each request to the best fit and taking a margin on the tokens that pass through.
Riding the wave
23 modelsEach step forward in AI makes them stronger.
Riding the wavePay per outcome$0.99What Intercom's AI agent charges each time it solves a customer's problemThe vendor is paid only when the AI agent completes a defined outcome, such as a resolved support ticket.Riding the waveTokens as the unit of sale$40BOpenAI's reported revenue run rate, sold largely by the tokenModel providers sell intelligence by the token, so revenue rises directly with usage.Riding the waveVertical AI priced by the work$100MLegora's annual revenue, reached in under 18 months selling legal workAI built for one profession is sold on the volume of professional work it produces (cases, matters, documents), not on the number of users.Riding the waveDiscovery paid by milestone$1.7BIn milestone payments Isomorphic Labs can earn from one Eli Lilly dealAn AI drug discovery platform earns upfront fees plus payments released as each research milestone is hit.Riding the waveAI roll-ups of services firms$1BThrive Holdings is spending to buy local accounting firms and rebuild them around AIInvestors buy traditional services firms (accounting, travel management) and rebuild how they operate around AI.Riding the waveThe ambient scribe$1.4M → $71MHeidi Health's revenue growth in two years, from AI that writes clinical notesAI listens to the clinical conversation and writes the note, sold per clinician.Riding the waveExpert data marketplaces$2BMercor's annual revenue from paying experts to train AI, up from $1B in four monthsPlatforms pay doctors, lawyers, engineers and other experts to create and grade the data that trains AI.Riding the wavePaid AI access to contentPer crawlCloudflare lets any site charge AI bots for reading its pagesNetworks and platforms charge AI systems for access to content, moving from per-crawl fees toward payment when content is actually used.Riding the waveAgentic checkout100+Partners building Visa's payments for AI agents that shop for youAI agents complete purchases on a person's behalf, and the merchant or network pays for the agent-originated sale.Riding the waveAI glasses94%Of AI glasses shipped in early 2026 were Meta'sEyewear sold as the everyday interface to an AI assistant.Riding the waveTiered intelligence subscriptions$200A month for the top tier of an AI assistantThe same assistant sold in tiers by capability and usage, up to US$200 or more a month for the top tier.Riding the waveDriverless rides500,000Paid Waymo rides a week, with nobody at the wheelRobotaxi fleets sell rides with no driver, at the same unit as ride-hailing.Riding the waveRobots as a service30,000BMW cars a Figure humanoid robot helped build in an 11-month pilotRobots, including humanoids, deployed into operations on multi-year or per-hour contracts rather than sold outright.Riding the waveOpen weights with paid layers$1BMoonshot AI's revenue run rate, built on models it gives awayModel weights are released openly and revenue comes from hosting, API access, enterprise deployment or cloud.Riding the waveOpen protocols as commonsFreeGoogle handed its agent protocol to the Linux Foundation, and AWS, Microsoft and Salesforce joinedCompanies donate agent protocols to neutral foundations, and rivals then build on the same standard.Riding the waveStablecoin float$10BTether's profit in nine months, mostly from interest on the dollars behind its tokensIssuers of dollar tokens earn the interest on the reserves backing them.Riding the wavePrediction markets$22BKalshi's valuation, doubled in five monthsExchanges for event contracts whose prices become a real-time signal that media and platforms carry.Riding the wave · on watchMachine-to-machine micropayments-93%Fall in daily payments between machines on x402 from its peakx402 settlement volume fell 93 percent from its peak by August 2026.Riding the wave · on watchApps inside AI assistants7Launch partners for apps inside ChatGPT, from Booking.com to SpotifyMarketplaces launched; no disclosed developer revenue or take rates.Riding the wave · on watchLikeness and voice licensing$22MPaid to people who license their voices on ElevenLabsElevenLabs creator payouts (US$22 million) are real but one company; rights disputes unresolved.Riding the wave · on watchAI-tutored schooling$75,000A year to attend Alpha School in San Francisco, taught mostly by AIHeadline learning claims rest on small samples; independent results weak.Riding the wave · on watchAI companionsRevenue modest and shifting to enterprise; regulatory and litigation pressure on minors.Riding the wave · on watchAI-run insurance+71%Lemonade's revenue growth in a year, still not profitableZhongAn's profitable AI-run underwriting is the strongest case but its figures are not yet confirmed from its own results; Lemonade is still loss-making and Wefox retreated from underwriting. Returns to the map once ZhongAn is confirmed.
Compounding
4 modelsThey get stronger as AI improves, and they make their customers more capable as they grow.
CompoundingEngineers deployed with the software+149%Growth in Palantir's US commercial revenue in a yearThe vendor embeds its own engineers inside the customer to build on its platform, trading software margin for depth and lock-in.CompoundingThe tiny-team company146People at Lovable, running a $400 million a year businessAI-native companies reach hundreds of millions in revenue with a small fraction of the staff earlier software companies needed.Compounding · on watchDigital workers priced as labor$5MA year from 250 companies hiring Artisan's AI sales repFraming more than a distinct model so far; the sharpest case (11x) is counter-evidence.Compounding · on watchThe one-person company$80MWix paid for Base44, a company of six peopleOne verified exit (Base44) and it had six employees; other claims self-reported.
Self-improving
1 modelBusinesses that redesign themselves with AI. The native business model of the singularity.
Riding on expectations
4 modelsGrowing on money bet on the AI curve continuing. They reverse if it slows.
Riding on expectationsNeoclouds$66.8BIn contracted backlog at CoreWeave, a cloud built only for AISpecialist GPU clouds sell capacity on multi-year contracts to AI labs and hyperscalers.Riding on expectationsCompute for equity$100BNvidia plans to invest in OpenAI, tied to OpenAI buying its systemsChip and cloud suppliers invest in AI labs that then commit to buying the suppliers' compute.Riding on expectationsSovereign AI capacity5 GWPlanned AI campus in the UAENational AI compute built as a commercial business, anchored by state capital or demand.Riding on expectationsEnergy underwritten by compute$18B17-year nuclear power deal signed by Amazon to run AITech companies sign long power contracts large enough to restart, extend or build power plants.
Get what moved each week
One free email: which models moved, the companies behind each move and the evidence.
Get the weekly emailSubmit a model