SBMUpdated 23 Oct 2026
Early version, updated weekly. Every claim is dated and sourced. Think something is wrong? Dispute it.
Map / Families / Selling the finished work

Selling the finished work

Money lands: The outcome, not the tool or the hoursLearning loopCost-curve loopSelf-improving loop

Up the ladder 20 models; rung 0 ones are moving toward this family

R4 Self-improving Autonomous businesses
R3 Compounds Engineers deployed with the software · The tiny-team company · Digital workers priced as labor · The one-person company
R2 Rides Pay per outcome · Vertical AI priced by the work · Discovery paid by milestone · AI roll-ups of services firms · The ambient scribe · Driverless rides · Robots as a service · AI-tutored schooling · AI-run insurance
R0 Fights toward Per-seat software pricing · Offshore contact-center labor · Per-word human translation · Commodity freelance gigs · Headcount-billed IT services · The billable hour and the pyramid

Models in this family

ModelRungFamilyLoopRegisterStateCosEvidenceLast
Pay per outcomeR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 34A 0B2026-09
Vertical AI priced by the workR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 33A 0B2026-04-02
Discovery paid by milestoneR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 43A 2B2026-07
AI roll-ups of services firmsR2 Rides Selling the finished workcost-curve RisingEmerging 20A 3B2026-06-02
Engineers deployed with the softwareR3 Compounds Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 21A 1B2026-08-04
The ambient scribeR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 42A 2B2026-09-25
The tiny-team companyR3 Compounds Selling the finished workself-improving RisingScaling 41A 3B2026-05-05
Driverless ridesR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 52A 3B2026-Q2
Robots as a serviceR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingEmerging 42A 2B2026-09-01
Digital workers priced as laborR3 Compounds Selling the finished workself-improving On watchWatch 42A 3B2025-07-31
The one-person companyR3 Compounds Selling the finished workself-improving On watchWatch 10A 1B2025-06-18
Autonomous businessesR4 Self-improving Selling the finished workself-improving On watchWatch 12A 0B2026
AI-tutored schoolingR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning On watchWatch 31A 3B2026-08
AI-run insuranceR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning On watchWatch 20A 2B2026-04-29
Per-seat software pricingR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringUnder pressure 20A 2B2026-04-02
Offshore contact-center laborR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringDeclining 21A 1B2026-06-29
Per-word human translationR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringDeclining 11A 0B2025
Commodity freelance gigsR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringUnder pressure 10A 1B2025-09-15
Headcount-billed IT servicesR0 Fights toward Selling the finished workcost-curve RetiringWatch 10A 1B2025-10-09
The billable hour and the pyramidR0 Fights toward Selling the finished worklearning RetiringWatch 10A 1B2025-05-29
Placements are judgments drawn from the evidence and open to correction. Dispute one.