SBMUpdated 23 Oct 2026
Early version, updated weekly. Every claim is dated and sourced. Think something is wrong? Dispute it.
Map / Rungs / 2. Rides

Rung 2: Rides

Loop gain: Positive23 models

Each step of the curve makes its own loop stronger.

By family

Selling abundance 3 Tokens as the unit of sale · Tiered intelligence subscriptions · AI companions
Selling the finished work 9 Pay per outcome · Vertical AI priced by the work · Discovery paid by milestone · AI roll-ups of services firms · The ambient scribe · Driverless rides · Robots as a service · AI-tutored schooling · AI-run insurance
Owning the scarce human 3 Expert data marketplaces · Paid AI access to content · Likeness and voice licensing
Owning the choke points 8 Agentic checkout · AI glasses · Open weights with paid layers · Open protocols as commons · Stablecoin float · Prediction markets · Machine-to-machine micropayments · Apps inside AI assistants

Models on this rung

ModelRungFamilyLoopRegisterStateCosEvidenceLast
Pay per outcomeR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 34A 0B2026-09
Tokens as the unit of saleR2 Rides Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 31A 2B2026-09-24
Vertical AI priced by the workR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 33A 0B2026-04-02
Discovery paid by milestoneR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 43A 2B2026-07
AI roll-ups of services firmsR2 Rides Selling the finished workcost-curve RisingEmerging 20A 3B2026-06-02
The ambient scribeR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 42A 2B2026-09-25
Expert data marketplacesR2 Rides Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal RisingScaling 41A 6B2026-08-20
Paid AI access to contentR2 Rides Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal RisingEmerging 45A 2B2026-07-01
Agentic checkoutR2 Rides Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingContested 53A 3B2026-03-24
AI glassesR2 Rides Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingScaling 40A 4B2026-09-21
Tiered intelligence subscriptionsR2 Rides Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 21A 1B2026-09
Driverless ridesR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 52A 3B2026-Q2
Robots as a serviceR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingEmerging 42A 2B2026-09-01
Open weights with paid layersR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 31A 2B2026-09-11
Open protocols as commonsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 32A 2B2025-12-09
Stablecoin floatR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 23A 0B2026-08-05
Prediction marketsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingEmerging 22A 1B2026-05-07
Machine-to-machine micropaymentsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork On watchWatch 11A 2B2026-08-13
Apps inside AI assistantsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointscontrol-point On watchWatch 34A 0B2026-09-25
Likeness and voice licensingR2 Rides Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal On watchWatch 21A 1B2026-05
AI-tutored schoolingR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning On watchWatch 31A 3B2026-08
AI companionsR2 Rides Selling abundancelearning On watchWatch 00A 0B
AI-run insuranceR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning On watchWatch 20A 2B2026-04-29
Placements are judgments drawn from the evidence and open to correction. Dispute one.