SBMUpdated 23 Oct 2026
Early version, updated weekly. Every claim is dated and sourced. Think something is wrong? Dispute it.
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Which AI-era models keep their gains, and which compete them away or run on expectations?

Keeps the gain Rung 2 and up, evidenced

ModelRungFamilyLoopRegisterStateCosEvidenceLast
Pay per outcomeR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 34A 0B2026-09
Tokens as the unit of saleR2 Rides Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 31A 2B2026-09-24
Vertical AI priced by the workR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 33A 0B2026-04-02
Discovery paid by milestoneR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 43A 2B2026-07
AI roll-ups of services firmsR2 Rides Selling the finished workcost-curve RisingEmerging 20A 3B2026-06-02
Engineers deployed with the softwareR3 Compounds Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 21A 1B2026-08-04
The ambient scribeR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 42A 2B2026-09-25
The tiny-team companyR3 Compounds Selling the finished workself-improving RisingScaling 41A 3B2026-05-05
Expert data marketplacesR2 Rides Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal RisingScaling 41A 6B2026-08-20
Paid AI access to contentR2 Rides Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal RisingEmerging 45A 2B2026-07-01
Agentic checkoutR2 Rides Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingContested 53A 3B2026-03-24
AI glassesR2 Rides Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingScaling 40A 4B2026-09-21
Tiered intelligence subscriptionsR2 Rides Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 21A 1B2026-09
Driverless ridesR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingScaling 52A 3B2026-Q2
Robots as a serviceR2 Rides Selling the finished worklearning RisingEmerging 42A 2B2026-09-01
Open weights with paid layersR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 31A 2B2026-09-11
Open protocols as commonsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 32A 2B2025-12-09
Stablecoin floatR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingScaling 23A 0B2026-08-05
Prediction marketsR2 Rides Owning the choke pointsnetwork RisingEmerging 22A 1B2026-05-07

Competes the gain away Rung 1

ModelRungFamilyLoopRegisterStateCosEvidenceLast
Credits for AI workR1 Flow through Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 32A 1B2026-03-02
Prompt to appR1 Flow through Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 20A 2B2026-04-13
Generative media subscriptionsR1 Flow through Selling abundancecost-curve RisingScaling 32A 1B2026-08-20
Content licensed to AI labsR1 Flow through Owning the scarce humanhuman-signal RisingEmerging 31A 3B2026-08-17
Optimizing for AI answersR1 Flow through Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingScaling 32A 1B2026-02-24
Model routingR1 Flow through Owning the choke pointscontrol-point RisingEmerging 22A 0B2026-09

Risk marker: Leveraged Reverses if the curve slows

ModelRungFamilyLoopRegisterStateCosEvidenceLast
NeocloudsLEV Leveraged Owning the scarce inputscapital RisingScaling 30A 3B2026-04-15
Compute for equityLEV Leveraged Owning the scarce inputscapital RisingContested 42A 2B2026-04-24
Sovereign AI capacityLEV Leveraged Owning the scarce inputscapital RisingEmerging 21A 1B2026-03-30
Energy underwritten by computeLEV Leveraged Owning the scarce inputscapital RisingScaling 30A 3B2026

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